Scientists warn of increasing risk of war

Following drone incidents in Poland, Denmark and Norway, there is growing concern about an escalation with Russia. A recent survey by Prof Dr Nils-Christian Bormann, conflict researcher at Witten/Herdecke University (UW/H), gives new weight to this concern: 210 experts from the fields of political science, history and economics estimate the risk of a military conflict between Russia and an EU state in the next five years at one third - the same as the probability of throwing a one or two with a dice.

Historians more pessimistic than political scientists

The researchers see almost a quarter of the probability of a full-blown war with more than 1,000 deaths. This puts the estimates well above the forecasts of common political science models and the historical frequency of military conflicts in Europe.

It is striking that historians rate the risk the highest, while political scientists are comparatively cautious.

"This survey shows: The risk of escalation is real and not just a theoretical thought experiment," says Bormann. "We have to reckon with the fact that political tensions in Europe could turn violent again."