2026 U.S. Midterms: Trump Faces a Defeat — and Political Gridlock Afterward

On 3 November, the US will hold elections for the House of Representatives and a portion of the Senate. Polls suggest that the Republicans could lose their majority in the House of Representatives. A change of power is also possible in the Senate. For Donald Trump, this would be a serious setback.  But there is more at stake than simply who wins the election: will the President accept the result?

“Casting doubt on election results is a major danger, because it undermines the fundamental consensus on shared political rules,” says Prof. Dr Nils-Christian Bormann. The holder of the Professorship of International Political Studies and Dean of the Faculty of Management, Economics and Society at the University of Witten/Herdecke (UW/H) believes that American democracy is under pressure. However, he considers the view held by some political scientists – that the US is no longer a functioning democracy – to be overly pessimistic.

How stable is US democracy?

Bormann expects Donald Trump to challenge the election results. However, the political scientist considers it unlikely that he will prevent the inauguration of a newly elected Congress. “My impression is that the institutions in the US are even more resilient than many observers think.”

Nevertheless, he sees dangers in the long term. Trump’s stance is also influencing Republican politicians at local, state and national levels. If they no longer recognise these election results, they could weaken democratic institutions in the long term. At the same time, Donald Trump’s policies have triggered a counter-movement: initiatives that are campaigning to strengthen electoral administration and organisation.

Blocked domestically, powerful in foreign policy

If the Republicans lose their majority in the House of Representatives, Donald Trump is likely to lose a considerable amount of room for manoeuvre in domestic politics. “Domestically, his term in office will be over after the elections,” predicts Bormann. The Democrats could block key initiatives and exercise greater control over the government.

In foreign policy, however, Donald Trump would remain largely capable of acting. Whilst the Senate could limit his power, Bormann believes that it has failed to exercise this oversight function adequately for decades. Trump is therefore likely to continue to exert considerable influence, particularly through US military power.

Will Trump’s departure spell the end of Trumpism?

Whether a defeat in the mid-term elections would also weaken Donald Trump’s position within the Republican Party depends, according to Bormann, on the scale of the losses. Should the Republicans also fail in the 2028 presidential election and fail to secure a majority in either the House of Representatives or the Senate, there could be a shift away from so-called ‘Trumpism’ within the party. The term describes the political course shaped by Trump: a nationalist ‘America First’ policy, a hardline approach to immigration, and a confrontational stance towards political opponents and democratic institutions.

However, a move away from Trumpism would not yet mean that the Republicans have a clear new political direction. According to Bormann’s assessment, the party’s future direction will also depend on the political course taken by the Democrats.

Further information: 

What do the results of the US mid-term elections mean for Donald Trump and American democracy? On 5 November 2026, from 6.00 pm to 7.30 pm, Prof. Dr Nils Christian Bormann and former ZDF foreign correspondent Klaus Prömpers will analyse the election results and their political consequences in a public online discussion. Under the title ‘The 2026 US Mid-term Elections – A New Beginning or Business as Usual?’, the two experts will assess the results and answer questions from participants.

Anyone interested can registerhereby 1 November 2026.