Saxony-Anhalt Ahead of the Election: It Doesn't Matter Who Wins

A party wins the election – yet ends up not forming the government. What sounds contradictory at first glance could become a reality in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt. According to the latest academic forecasts by election researcher Prof. Dr Lukas Stötzer of Witten/Herdecke University (UW/H), the AfD is highly likely to become the largest party in the state parliament. Whether this will also result in the party taking on governing responsibilities, however, depends on another question: which parties can together form a majority?

Stötzer and his research team develop scientific electoral models that go beyond traditional opinion polls: they calculate not only potential share of the vote but also the probabilities of different election outcomes, whilst making the uncertainty inherent in such forecasts transparent. Unlike a poll, which provides a snapshot of the current mood, the models simulate numerous possible election scenarios and show which outcomes are particularly likely. In doing so, they take into account the statistical uncertainty inherent in any forecast. The models are being published for the first time for state elections on the zweitstimme.org platform.

Forecasts show probabilities – but offer no certainty

Currently, the probability of the AfD becoming the largest party stands at 93 per cent. An absolute majority, by contrast, is significantly less likely. Depending on developments in the run-up to election day, the party’s potential share of the vote currently ranges between around 30 and 46 per cent.

The key point is this: in a parliamentary democracy, a high share of the vote does not automatically translate into government responsibility. This requires majorities in parliament – and therefore coalition partners.

The real challenge begins after the election

For Stötzer, the real challenge therefore lies not solely in the election result, but in the formation of a government afterwards. “We know from research that electoral successes can initially boost satisfaction with democracy. However, if a party is not part of the government despite a strong result, this effect could be reversed,” he explains. Particularly for voters who see their party as a political alternative, this could create the impression that an election result has no real political consequences.

In an increasingly diverse party landscape, the ability to form coalitions is becoming ever more important. “Coalitions are not a sign of political weakness, but a central component of democratic decision-making,” says Stötzer.

A state election with implications beyond Saxony-Anhalt

Whilst a state government initially determines policy within its own German federal state, the federal states also contribute to numerous laws via the Bundesrat and cooperate closely in areas such as higher education policy, internal security and science. Changes in one German federal state can therefore also have an impact on political majorities and decision-making processes at federal level.

“An AfD-led state government could influence decisions in the Bundesrat or complicate coordination between the federal states,” says Stötzer.

For Stötzer, Saxony-Anhalt is therefore of interest beyond the German federal state itself: “The election shows how a party system changes when individual parties become very strong, whilst at the same time it becomes more difficult to form traditional majorities.” The crucial question, then, is not only which party receives the most votes, but also what governing coalitions might subsequently be possible.

Saxony-Anhalt could thus become an example of a development that is likely to occupy other parliaments in the future: in a more diverse party landscape, the formation of stable majorities is becoming one of the central challenges of democratic politics.

Further information:

On 6 September 2026, the citizens of Saxony-Anhalt will elect a new state parliament. Prof. Dr Lukas Stötzer is available for interviews and commentary on the election.

Possible topics:

• Analysis of current election forecasts and their uncertainties
• The significance of strong performances by individual parties
• Possible coalition options and the formation of a government
• The implications of the election for the German party system