The US mid-term elections on 3 November 2026 – a fresh start or business as usual?
To mark the US mid-term elections, in which the political balance of power in the House of Representatives and the Senate will be redrawn, zeb.Institute for Financial Services at the University of Witten/Herdecke is organising an open discussion on political developments in the USA and their potential implications for international politics.
The panellists will be Klaus Prömpers, a long-standing ZDF foreign correspondent and foreign policy expert, and Prof. Dr Nils Bormann, Dean of the Faculty of Management, Economics and Society at the University of Witten/Herdecke.
As part of the higher education sector, the newly founded zeb Institute for Financial Services at the University of Witten/Herdecke fulfils its mission of discussing current socio-political issues with participants and those interested in our degree programmes and continuing education courses.
On the topic
In the run-up to the upcoming US mid-term elections, many questions arise: What are the consequences of the results of the mid-term elections in the USA? Is US President Trump facing defeat – or even a loss of power – in the mid-term elections on 3 November? If so, a now hostile Congress would put the brakes on his agenda and launch a flood of investigations.
All 435 members of the House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 senators, as well as 36 governors and thousands of local political offices will be up for election. The elections are traditionally regarded as the most important political barometer between presidential elections. This time, they are likely to be, above all, a referendum on Trump. He himself is not on the ballot paper – but his record in office is.
The protracted conflict with Iran, high petrol prices, inflation and rising mortgage rates are taking their toll on the US President. Swing voters, in particular, are turning away from him. In a recent AP/NORC poll, only 31 per cent approved of his performance in office, whilst 69 per cent disapproved. His slump in popularity is dragging the Republicans down. The Democrats are leading by around ten percentage points in the polls. Their chances of recapturing the House of Representatives stand at around 75 per cent. And even in the Senate, where the hurdle is significantly higher, an upset is possible. Trump’s Republicans could even face defeat in former strongholds such as North Carolina or Texas.
Four scenarios are conceivable
- A ‘Democratic wave’ sweeps Republicans from power: Democrats are ahead in almost all the battleground states, including Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio and Texas. For Trump, it would be a nightmare scenario and perhaps even the beginning of the end for the Trump movement.
- But just a small blue wave?: In this case, the Republicans could retain their majority in the Senate at least, thereby protecting Trump from the opposition’s fiercest attacks in the upper house of Congress.
- A surprise victory for the Republicans?: Trump is already railing against the polls, claiming they are ‘fake’ just like the news. Admittedly, there have been occasional blunders in the polls – in 2022, a clear Republican victory was expected, yet the Democrats, under then-President Joe Biden, performed significantly better.
- Chaotic elections: The 2026 mid-terms could even plunge the US into a constitutional crisis should Trump’s lawsuits and directives from the White House complicate the elections. The rhetoric has recently intensified. Some Trump activists have already floated the idea of declaring ‘martial law’.
Trump and the Republicans do, however, have one major advantage: money. A great deal of money from Trump’s coffers ($180 million) has flowed into key election campaigns. Trump’s strategists, however, know that all the money in the world cannot make up for a lack of enthusiasm. And the pendulum currently seems to be swinging in favour of the opposition.
The event is free of charge and will take place online.